Russia has completely transformed its diplomatic gears during the last couple of years. Rather than being defensive and play second fiddle to US in Europe and Asia, Russia has suddenly fast-tracked its diplomacy to play a very prominent role in South Asia and Middle East. The days of post-Ukraine indecisiveness are gone, probably for ever.
Recently Sergei Karaganov, Russian strategist, economic and foreign policy advisor to Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke to Indian journalist Indrani Bagchi about Russia’s evolving relationship with China, India, Pakistan and Afghanistan amidst Moscow’s endeavours to balance its interests in a fast-changing world. The incisive interview provides a glimpse of Russian strategies, priorities and initiatives in Asia.
Being closest neighbours both historically and geographically, China and Russia share very good relations. Russia has changed track during last 10 -15 years to cultivate closer relationship with China and to carve out larger space in international relations. China is pumping investments into Russia which also wants to build bigger relationship with China. Karaganov stresses that despite India having a tense relationship with China at this juncture, Russia thinks differently; its relationship with India is not dependent on its relationship with China and would be balanced positively by others. Admitting that Russia’s preoccupation with US is not good he advises that India being too preoccupied with China is not good.
There are ‘difficulties and differences’ between the systems in India and China which is becoming a more complex and sophisticated society. Russia could help India as an intermediary but won’t take sides if asked to make a choice. It won’t jeopardise its interests for either China or India.
Thirty-forty years ago there was deep distrust between Russia and China including a territorial dispute but now their border is most peaceful. Karaganov advised India “the fact that you are hostile to one another is an aberration. The sooner you solve it, the better.” China and Russia are quasi-allies right now as US strategy of containing Asian powers has brought them together. Lots of common interests have further strengthened the bonding. Karaganov contested the perception that Russia is almost a younger sibling to China; it cannot be a junior partner to anybody. Russia defeated all of them – Ghengis Khan’s heirs, Napoleon or Hitler.
Both India and Russia should broaden the relationship – currently confined to governments – by opening up economies, people-to-people contacts and introducing common courses between Indian and Russian universities to build up on existent goodwill on either side. Some Russian elites are fearful of China, not of India. There are serious conversations on strategic issues between Russia and India at the top level that should percolate down. Russia is ‘good at diplomacy, military power and international manoeuvring’ but has a ‘relatively weak economic base’ posing a long term problem. Hence it’s strategic and foreign policy now prioritises internal development. Keeping peace in the world is another priority, especially since global situation now is worse than ant any time in decades.
Russia is mulling ‘building a robust relationship with China based on concept of greater Eurasia.’ Both are rebuilding relationship with Europe, not on the past basis which failed, but on a new footing. Next priorities in geographical terms would be India. ‘There are unutilised opportunities that have been missed in the last 30 years’. As regards supporting Afghan Taliban, Russia is ‘playing a very complicated game’ in Afghanistan- supporting Taliban and Anti-Taliban forces at different times. Russia got a scare when US entered Afghanistan with ground troops but won’t want them to leave for the time being as withdrawal could create more problems. Now Russia wants US troops to be confined to Afghan borders’ to prevent the ‘Afghan disease’ or terrorism from spreading to neighbouring areas like central Asia or India. For Russia, Afghanistan is a huge national security issue. Russia perceives that US does not have vested interests unlike India or China.
Russia considers relationship with Pakistan as important but not in the same category as China or India. Karaganov’s interview provides India an insight into Russia’s strategic imperatives in Asia which should guide India’s policy makers in orienting our strategies vis a vis Asian powers in the region.